克什米尔人

The Kashmiri Muslims have four of the factors that increase the likelihood of continued rebellion in the future: a decade-long high-level insurgency; territorial concentration; generally high levels of group organization; and recurring government repression. Factors that might inhibit or limit future rebellion include India's tradition of democratic rule; its past ability to negotiate settlements with separatist groups; and transnational efforts in support of a diplomatic settlement. More than 65,000 people have died since the Kashmir insurgency began in late 1989. Efforts to reach a negotiated settlement will require the active involvement of the Indian government, Pakistan, and Kashmiri rebel groups, who have so far largely been excluded from any talks. The Kashmiri Muslim residents of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir are primarily concentrated in the region referred to as the valley which includes the state's capital city, Srinagar (GROUPCON = 3). The state's southern Jammu region is largely populated by Hindus while the northern Ladakh area is predominantly Buddhist. There has been no significant group migration across the country's regions. While Kashmiri Muslims speak predominantly Kashmiri, many also speak additional languages such as Hindi, Punjabi, and Urdu (LANG = 1). Group members have different social customs than the country's dominant Hindu community (CUSTOM = 1), and they also adhere to Islam in comparison to India's majority who are Hindu (BELIEF = 2). The historical region known as Kashmir comprises the territories of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir along with Pakistan-administered Azad Kashmir (Free Kashmir) and parts of that country's northern territories. The region was ruled by the Sikhs until the British conquest in 1846. The British chose to utilize indirect rule in the area and achieved this through the sale of the region to a Hindu maharajah (ruler). This allowed the British to maintain a buffer zone between the Russian and Chinese empires without having to incur the administrative costs of direct rule. When it was decided that the Indian subcontinent would be partitioned to create the states of India and Pakistan, princely states such as Jammu and Kashmir were given the choice of acceding to either of the new states based on geographic and demographic realities. In Kashmir's case, the region had a majority Muslim population but the area's Hindu ruler chose to negotiate standstill agreements with both India and Pakistan when they became independent in August 1947. In October of that year, western Kashmir was the site of a tribal rebellion which was soon aided by large numbers of Pakistani troops (REBEL45X = 3). The Hindu maharajah appealed to New Delhi for assistance but in return he was required to agree that Kashmir would become a part of the newly-independent India. After Indian troops entered the region, the rebellion was shortly halted. The result was that approximately two-thirds of historical Kashmir's territory was held by the Indians with the remaining one-third governed by Pakistan. The United Nations agreed to hold a plebiscite to determine the region’s future status. To ensure that a ceasefire was monitored, the UN Military Observer Group was deployed to the border areas between the two countries. United Nations efforts to mediate the Kashmir dispute throughout the 1950s met with little success as did bilateral meetings between the two countries. In 1956, Jammu and Kashmir, the country's only Muslim-majority area, was proclaimed as a state of the Indian Union, despite the persistent efforts of leaders such as Sheikh Abdullah and his National Conference party which had consistently pressed for independence. Protests in Jammu and Kashmir in the mid-1960s were viewed in Pakistan as the opportune time to obtain the territory to reunite it with Azad Kashmir. The second India-Pakistan war broke out in September 1965 when Pakistani troops crossed into Jammu. The war was short-li