Phillips curve

The Phillips curve is a representation of the relationship between unemployment and inflation in the macroeconomy, where a tradeoff between low unemployment and price stability exists. Identified by economist Bill Phillips, the curve shows a relationship between lowering unemployment with increasing wages in an economy. While Phillips did not directly link employment and inflation, this was a trivial deduction from his statistical findings. Classical economists Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow made the connection explicit, followed by the theoretical arguments developed by Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps.

While there is a short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, it has not been observed in the long run. In 1967 and 1968, Friedman and Phelps asserted that the Phillips curve was only applicable in the short run and that, in the long run, inflationary policies would not decrease unemployment. Friedman correctly predicted the stagflation of the 1970s.