gambler's fallacy
Sign in to saveAlso known as Monte Carlo fallacy, fallacy of the maturity of chances
mistaken belief that more frequent chance events will lead to less frequent chance events, or vice versa, to balance out
Described at
Your logical fallacy is the gambler's fallacy
You said that 'runs' occur to statistically independent phenomena such as roulette wheel spins.
yourlogicalfallacyis.com →Link to a page describing this subject · 706 chars · not written by Vinony
Wikidata facts
- Instance of
- cognitive bias
Show 3 more facts
- opposite of
- hot-hand fallacy
- Commons category
- Gambler's fallacy
- described at URL
- yourlogicalfallacyis.com/cn/the-gamblers-fallacy
Sources (1)
via Wikidata · CC0
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Encyclopedic overview
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that an independent and equally probable outcome which happened less frequently than expected is more likely to happen in the future (or vice versa). The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be mistakenly believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more likely to give '4' because there have recently been fewer '4's than expected, when in reality the probability of the next outcome being '4' is always 1/6, for each dice roll is an independent event.
The term "Monte Carlo fallacy" originates from an example of the phenomenon, in which the roulette wheel spun black 26 times in succession at the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913.
Excerpted from Wikipedia’s “gambler's fallacy” article, available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 licence.