Pashtuns

The current Pashtun rebellion in Afghanistan is likely to persist. The Pashtuns are concentrated in a region that straddles the porous Afghan-Pakistani border. The free flow of people and goods between the adjoining Pashtun areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan benefits the various Pashtun militant organizations involved in the Afghan rebellion by providing them with a refuge where they can rest and rearm. This support of the Afghan Pashtuns sheltered in Pakistan is undoubtedly perpetuating the Afghan rebellion. Meanwhile, the politically and militarily weak Afghan government remains unable to exert control over large swaths of Pashtun territory and is highly dependent on foreign military assistance. The repression of Pashtun civilians by the government is also likely to encourage rebellion. Pashtun politicians emerged victorious from the presidential and legislative elections of 2004 and 2005, with Pashtun candidates taking the presidency and 113 of 249 seats in the National Assembly. The elections themselves have not quelled the rebellion and, in fact, violence has increased over the last few years. However, programs that offer Pashtun militants (e.g. Taliban) amnesty if they lay down their arms and pledge allegiance to the government have shown some positive results. Pashtun protests will likely continue at a moderate level and have the potential to worsen in response to sudden, unforeseen events (e.g., a botched military operation that causes significant collateral damage). Negative encounters with foreign military units remain a provocative issue in Afghanistan, especially among the Pashtun population. Sporadic protests by Pashtuns will continue until the government can provide the population with security and economic opportunities. Protest over incompetence and a perceived lack of representation in the central government is another possibility. The Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, comprising approximately 42 percent of the country's population. They are concentrated in a crescent-shaped region that runs along Afghanistan’s southern and eastern boarders (GROUPCON = 2; GC6B = 2; GC7 = 2). Pashtuns can also be found in enclaves scattered across the north of the country and in the western interior (the result of resettlement policies of Amir Abdul Rahman Khan, r. 1880-1901). The overwhelming majority of Pashtuns are Sunni (Hanafi) Muslims (BELIEF = 0; RELIGS1 = 5) and speak Pashto, although a small number speak Dari (a.k.a. “Afghan Persian”) and practice Twelver Shiism; these Dari speaking Shiite Pashtuns are typically found outside of the regional base, in the aforementioned enclaves or in the larger cities. Pashtuns are currently and historically the most politically powerful ethnic group in Afghanistan. Pashtun socio-political affairs are dominated by tribal and sub-tribal loyalties, alliances, and conflicts. The anti-soviet mujahedin posses of the 1980s were often divided along tribal lines, and fell to fighting each other and the militias of other ethnic groups once the Soviets withdrew in 1989. Chaos, lawlessness, and the abuses committed by the mujahedin factions in the post-Soviet power vacuum alienated the Pashtun population and led them to support the Taliban, a grassroots Pashtun politico-religious organization promising justice and stability. The Taliban, which first appeared in 1994 in the southern province of Kandahar, originally consisted mainly of young Pashtun madrassa students who had studied in Pakistan and were supported by the Pakistani government. The organization quickly became the most powerful military force in Afghanistan. In 1996 the Taliban captured the Afghan capital, Kabul, and at their peak they controlled about 90 percent of Afghanistan. One of the defining characteristics of the Taliban regime was their draconian variant of Shari a law that called for severe criminal punishments and imposed rigid codes of conduct on the general population. The Taliban ruled over most of